As if high-intensity wildfires are not already destructive enough, there is now a new threat that could fan the flames in an unforeseen yet intentional and dangerous way.
On July 27, a federal judge blocked enforcement of a new Minnesota law that banned prediction markets, which are online platforms that allow people to buy and sell contracts that pay out depending on the future outcomes of weather, sporting events, elections, legislative actions, the economy and other things.
Also available to the public is the ability to buy and sell contracts related to wildfires and wildfire activity.
"That's just absolutely disgusting because of the loss that occurs from that; seems we've sunk to a new low. Whether that wildfire intersects with a community or watershed or whatnot, there's big implications," Matthew Hurteau, University of New Mexico biology professor and wildfire researcher, told KRWG public media.
The preliminary injunction ruling against the state of Minnesota favored the prediction market platforms of Kalshi and Polymarket as well as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
“Prediction markets are gambling, plain and simple, and Minnesota has every right to keep predatory gambling out of our communities. We respectfully disagree with the court’s determination that the proper ‘status quo’ to maintain is one that allows predatory gambling apps to proliferate,” Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison told Courthouse News.
Nine members of the U.S. Senate wrote a letter to the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, expressing their deep concern. They cited recent reports that Polymarket accepted more than $1.2 million in bets linked to the 2025 Palisade and Eaton fires that claimed 31lives and destroyed thousands of homes in California.
"Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit," the letter stated. "There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful. By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading."
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, 54,000 fires as of early September burned more than 8.4 million acres of forest and grassland nationwide. Those fires also took lives, destroyed hundreds of homes, forced tens of thousands to evacuate and charred or destroyed vital forest, grassland and riparian habitat relied upon by wildlife.
About Hunt 2 Conserve
Hunt 2 Conserve is a 501(c)4 nonprofit organization affiliated with the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation. Its mission is to advance a legacy of hunting and conservation by educating, activating and developing stewards and defenders of these fundamentally American ideals. For more information, go to hunt2conserve.org.
(Photo credit: InciWeb)
